POKER BLOG 12-19-2005

Man, is this way overdue.  I don't mean to use this as an excuse, but one variable causing me to blow off the site for a while is that I haven't had many wins to write about. One win and a couple of seconds. A lot of others sucking out on me.

 

The word for the day is variance.  In probabilities, if something is 4 to 1, like you're a 4-1 favorite, it doesn't mean you WILL win 4 of the next 5. It just that means that over the long run, and many, many samples, that's how the math will work out. You might win all 5. You might lose 4 out of 5. These swings are officially referred to as variances. I was on a real bad one. It has gotten better, but not great.

 

Yesterday had a great example. I was controlling the table. My game plan was working phenomenally well.  I limp in from UTG with K-7s. I believe everyone else folded to the blinds.  People were pretty much afraid to get in a hand with me.  The flop came Q-7-x. The BB bet 1/3 the pot.  This is usually a declaration bet. He's declaring he caught some of the flop. I have to figure out what part of it did he catch. My hunch is the 7. But I know a way to find out. I raise him. Apparently he thought I was bullying him, and he's in a fold or re-raise situation. Just calling isn't really a smart option. So he re-raised all-in (his only re-raise option with the size of his stack and the current betting levels). I stayed with my hunch and called him. He has 7-5. I'm basking in the glow of another great read and my status as a 9-1 favorite as the river comes and is a 5. So now I have to make the desperation bets, and my JJ can't suck out against KK (who, incidentally, initially limped in).

 

That was online so I don't know if it was an “older” lady. A trend has been spotted regarding where these types of players are sitting on their monster pocket pairs. I watched one girl lose a monster pot to an “older” lady who was sitting on KK. No bets, no raises, just calls. That same night I was put out in a similar fashion.  I'm BB with Kc10c. Everyone limps and I check.  The flop comes 10-Xc-3c. So, I get to make my declaration bet. And I like mine.  Because I have top pair with a king kicker and a King high flush draw. I bet 70% of the pot. This sweet old lady next to me raises me all in. Anyone who may have been in the pot quickly gets out. I'm trying to figure out what she has that makes her so positive she has the best hand. A-10? 3-3? Those are the only hands that I can think of that she may have limped in with from UTG. after agonizing I decide it's time to make my move. I call.  She has QQ.

 

I do give her credit, though. She does have some understanding of the game. I believe her exact words when she saw my cards was “Oh crap!”.  I'm sure she thought she was a 3-1 to 4-1 favorite. Well, it was actually a 50-50 coin flip (actually 51-49). Any of the 3 remaining K's, 2 10's or 9 clubs gives me better hand. That's 14 cards that improve my hand as long as she doesn't get any more queens, and there is a 51% probability of that occurring. And although any and all comers can get 1 of the only 2 cards remaining that can help them, I can't get one of 14. : )

 

I do need to cover a “home” tourney that I played in a while back (before the last Badger Poker finals). A gent emailed me after reading my website and facetiously wanted to know where the write up on our great heads up battle was. I told him I was going to, I just figured people would be more interested in the Badger Poker finals so I wrote that first.  I also told him that I planned to throw some praise his way. I think he blushed. : )

 

My compliment was that I have enjoyed watching his game improve over the last 6 months or so.  He won a key hand during the evening after getting me to lay down the best hand. I'm sure there was some level of raising before the flop but I don't remember the specifics. But going into the flop I am in position with A-4. The flop comes A-x-x.  I'm glad to see the Ace, but with just a 4 I need to get a good read to see if any one else has an Ace, and most undoubtedly, a better kicker. BB makes a good size bet. Jay, the man of the hour, raises. That means he has an Ace with a real sweet kicker. I fold. When the showdown occurs, Jay flips over QQ. Oh my!  This is why this is an “Oh my!”. In the past, if Jay was sitting on a pocket pair and an over card came out, he'd crawl into a hole and start playing very conservatively.  He didn't do that here. I have to change how I read him now. Damn!

 

I am also pretty sure he got me to lay down a winning hand when we were heads up too.  5 to 6 hands after I folded a pretty good hand I decided to challenge him on a hand he was playing pretty similarly. He had nothing. Drat! He may have had nothing before too.  Ughh! He's gonna be tough.

 

New topic: I have created a monster. My sister Julie has been bitten by the poker bug.  She also has a nice natural grasp of numbers and math so the game is coming pretty easy to her. I was able to coax her into playing in a Badger Poker event so I could get the 3 points for bringing in a new player. A lot of good it did me. She's the one who knocked me out.

 

This may sounds like criticism, but I'll be following up with praise on the back side. I attribute her play at Badger to a trait I have seen in others. You get wrapped up in all the loose play going on around you that you start playing that way also. She was quite the little calling station. And hitting. And taking down pot after pot. Then it was my turn. : )

 

I'm BB with 9-9. Anyone who is in the hand has only limped in. There are too many players so I need to whittle down the playing field and I raise from the BB. Julie is the only caller.  No one is surprised.  The flop comes 9-Xh-Xh. There is no straight possibility, but there is a flush. If she has 2 hearts. I am going to do something some people want to outlaw.  I'm gonna check-raise her. Although I fully anticipated her making a bet, I didn't see a $6000 bet into a $5000 pot coming from a mile away (I'm assuming we're going to call this a semi-bluff). I only have $8000+.  So raising her puts me all in.  I have the nuts, at the moment. It is impossible for her hand to be better than mine. Even if she has 2 hearts, I'm still a 3-1 favorite.  I go all in, she calls.

 

She has 2 hearts. She gets a heart on the turn.  Someone else comments that they threw away the 4th 9 so my only hope is for something on the board to pair up to give me a full house.  My ugly variance streak plays out. I'm done. : (

 

The backside: Her impressive play was in a home game.  She hurt me on 2 critical, but good, calls. The first one is when I'm sitting on an Ace high flush after the river and I bet at her.  The bet I made was designed to fulfill 2 purposes:

1. Get her to call

2. Give me the chip lead

 

There was some banter at the table as to what the nuts was and someone blurted out “ace high flush”. Thanks guys.  : )   She folded.  UGHHH!!

 

Much later I have A-10. After the river there is an ace on the board.  Based on what has previously transpired (I can't share all my secrets) I know she's sitting on an ace with a kicker higher than a 10.  My only hope to take this pot is to bet her out of it. I go all in. She laments “What the heck” and calls. I go “UGHHH!!”. People look at me strangely so I state “She has an ace with a real nice kicker” as she flips over her A-Q.

One of the kazillion tactics in poker is to “figure out what your opponent wants you to do, then do the opposite.”  Julie demonstrated that approach magnificently that day.  She won't be invited to any more of my poker games.  : )

 

This is the end of part one. I'll probably do part 2 over the holiday weekend.

You can email me at lancep62@hotmail.com

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